Friday, December 28, 2007

Monday, December 17, 2007

Causeway travellers..

10 teams at Causeway next year.

(Shortest) Travel times to JB are shown.

US- Boston- London (6hr 25 min) London- Singapore (13 hr 20 min) S'pore - JB 1.5 hr
Total- 21 hr 15 min

Dallas-Tokyo (13 hr 30 min) Tokyo-Singapore (7hr 25min) S'pore - JB 1.5hr
Total- 22hr 25 min

New York-Hong Kong (16 hr) Hong Kong - S'pore (3hr 50 min) S'pore- JB 1.5 hr
Total time: 21 hr 20min

Canada- Montreal-London (6hr 25 mins) London-S'pore (12 hr 40min) S"pore-JB 1.5 hr
Total time: 20 hr 35min

Toronto-London (7 hr 15 min) London-S'pore (12 hr 40min) S"pore-JB 1.5 hr

Total Time: 21 hr 25 min

UK- London- Singapore (12 hr 40 min) S'pore-JB 1.5hr
Total time: 14 hr 10 min

NZ- Auckland-Singapore (10 hr 30 min) S'pore- JB 1.5 hr
Total time: 12 hr

Thailand- BKK- S'pore (2 hr 30min) S'pore-JB 1.5 hr
Total time: 4 hr

Philippines- Manila- S"pore (3 hr 40 min) S'pore- JB 1.5 hr
Total time: 5 hr 10mins

Nigeria- Lagos- Nairobi (5hr) Nairobi-Mumbai (6hr) Mumbai- Singapore (5hr) Singapore-JB 1.5hr

Total time: 17.5 hr

Friday, December 14, 2007

WSC finals game 3 analysis

An important game. Nigel needs 1 more game to win. Win% and equity will be shown..

Note that although there's a championship player report on the site, the report is done with relatively few iterations and isn't very accurate.

See the game here

>Nigel: BCEOPSZ H7 BEZ +28 28

Best. Playing POZ(28), leaving BCES isn't best as the COPS combo is better. An interesting situation where keeping the E isn't the best move.

Move Score Win% Equity
8G BEZ 28 59.28% 41.2
8G POZ 28 57.52% 37
8G ZEP 28 57.49% 36.9
8G COZ 28 55.85% 33.0
8G BOP 14 54.51% 29.8

>Ganesh: CGIKNRT 8F TRECKING +66 66

Best. This rack combines with every vowel so he is virtually assured of a bingo.

TRECKING 66 59.7% 69.3

>Nigel: CEEOPRS K3 RECOP.ES +74 102

Best. Nigel plays the only playable bingo.

Move Score Win% Equity

RECOPIES 74 57.7% 73.5

>Ganesh: AABGNNN 4J BEGAN +16 82

Ganesh's choice isn't the best here- I8 CANN/ZA, undoubling the Ns is 6.5 pts better. It also makes for a more open board which is favourable as he is trailing. Also superior are CAN and CANG in the same position. Keeping 2 Ns is unproductive.

Move Score Win% Equity

I8 CANN 19 33.27% 19.5
I8 CAN 18 30.34% 12.5
I8 CANG 20 30.32% 13.2
6J GONNA 12 30.19% 13.0
4J BEGAN 16 30.16% 13.0
J2 BAN 15 30.13% 12.5

>Nigel: DFIJOWX 3M JOW +46 148

A very obvious choice. Nigel surges ahead quickly with his pickup of several power tiles

Move Score Win% Equity

3M JOW 46 72.0% 44.2
3M FIX 38 69.32% 39.1

>Ganesh: AADINNO F4 ADNATION +63 145

Best. Despite having 2 bingos to 1, Ganesh is down by only 3 points and is back in the game

Move Score Win% Equity
F4 ADNATION 63 39.29% 64.9


>Nigel: AADFIUX J6 DUKA +26 174

After 10000 iterations, Nigel's choice is the best. DUKA scores decently and keeps a flexible AFIX for a potential high-scoring move later. Other choices like FAUX and CAUF are close, but DUKA is definitely superior in that it keeps the X. If Ganesh opens the board, Nigel will have no trouble capitalizing on it with a good play. Also, DUKA keeps the board tight- aver opp score is 5 pts lower after DUKA than FAUX.

Move Score Win% Equity

J6 DUKA 26 56.14% 27.1
G10 FAUX 29 56.13% 27.1
I8 CAUF 22 55.37% 25.6
G10 FAIX 29 55.32 % 25.6
11E UNFIX 30 54.93% 24.9
E5 AUF 25 54.8% 24.6
G1 FAUX 24 50.97% 17.7


>Ganesh: EFMNOST E4 FOEN +29 174


FEW (27) is marginally better here while FOEN is quite close. Also of consideration is FON(12), which combines with quite a lot of tiles but the board is not very conducive to bingoes. Also, Nigel is very unlikely to open the board at this point. FEW's advantage is that it keeps 1 vowel. MNOST could also become quite bingo prone if 2 vowels are picked up. However it doesn't open the board much.

Move Score Win% Equity

O1 FEW 27 46.85% 42.2
e4 FOEN 29 45.93% 40.8
N2 FON 12 45.5% 39.7
4D FOAM 18 43.54% 36.6

>Nigel: AFGIUXY 11E UNFIX +30 204

Nigel's play of UNFIX is almost best. N2 GONIF, keeping the X, is slightly better. Despite opening a TWS line, it outscores UNFIX and keeps the X for a potential 11D YUNX next turn. Also playable is the new word 11C GUANXI(28), which is not a bad play either. Other plays do poorly as they open too many hotspots.

Move Score Win% Equity

N2 GONIF 34 56.11% 29.2
11E UNFIX 30 55.98% 29.1
11D GUANXI 28 55.46% 28.3
E10 YUGA 25 54.97% 27.4
11B FAXING 34 53.62% 25.3
G10 FAUX 29 51.12% 21.2

>Ganesh: EEHMMST L10 HMM +25 199

Quite a mediocre play from Ganesh here. HMM doesn't score much and instead creates an even more blocked board. Superior are N2 MONTH for 36 pts or even O1 MEW for 24.

N2 MONTH 36 48.61% 46.7
O1 MEW 24 47.8% 45.6
D5 HMM 27 43.97% 39.3
J11 THEME 32 43.88% 37.5
N2 MONEME 32 43.81% 39.1
5M MEM 22 42.17% 36.4

>Nigel: ADGNOOY 2N YO +27 231

Interesting array of moves available here. Nigel's move is 3rd best, after 5K COGON for 25 and O1 YOW(27). COGON keeps the board tight while scoring, despite keeping the Y.

Move Score Win% Equity

5K COGON 60.55% 30.3
O1 YOW 27 59.24% 29.0
M11 YOGA 27 59.02% 28.9
5K COY 24 57.63% 26.2

>Ganesh: ?EEHSTW O1 W.. +27 226

Best. Nigel's play allow's Ganesh an easy dump of the W in WOW.Other options include J11 THEW/UNFIXT (34) which is slightly risky as there is a blank and 2 Ss unseen. Other plays don't come close.

Move Score Win% Equity

O1 WOW 27 66.85% 77.2
J11 THEW 34 65.02% 73.4
O1 HOW 27 63.42% 71.4
G3 WHEE 30 61.74 67.8

>Nigel: ADEGNOV 5K .OG +20 251

The scores are extremely close now and Nigel makes the best move which doesn't open any bingo lanes. Other moves like 12A VEGAN(28) AND G4 VADE do poorly as they open the board up.

Move Score Win% Equity
5K COG 20 57.63% 26.0
12A VEGAN 28 57.03% 24.1
G3 VADE 26 55.65% 23.4
3I VOR 14 53.12% 19.2

>Ganesh: ?EEHIST M10 HE +18 244

Ganesh misses a difficult bingo, mETH(OD)ISE for 63 pts but surprisingly this isn't the best move, as it opens a few lines for an opponent comeback. M10 HIE for 23 pts, while keeping the blank, is better though taking the bingo may be better as the board is not conducive for bingoes. Bingoing first also increases the chance of picking the last blank.

Move Score Win% Equity

M10 HIE 23 67.37% 69.0
M10 HIES 31 66.1% 66.5
M10 HEIST 33 64.59% 64.7
M10 HE 18 63.67% 63.8
5A METHODISE 62 60.78% 59.8

>Nigel: ?ADEINV H11 IVIED +39 290

Best. Opening up the board now is fine as the play scores well and keeps the blank.

Move Score Win% Equity
H11 IVIED 39 85.39% 69.1
m10 HEAVED 30 79.6% 57.8

>Ganesh: ?EIISTT 15H DIrTIEST +77 321

One of the best plays. Ganesh chooses not to stick the S in the TWS lane with plays like DIETISTs for an easy comeback.

Move Score Win% Equity
DIThEIST 77 57.93% 76.2
DIrTIEST 77 57.69% 75.8
DIETIsTS 77 54.43% 72.0


>Nigel: ?AEINQS 13C EQuIN.AS +86 376

Ganesh's small advantage is rapidly vanquished by Nigel's bingo.

Move Score Win% Equity
13C EQUINIAS 86 81.8% 88.7

>Ganesh: AELRUUY D7 AYU +13 334

Ganesh is trailing by 55 points on a fairly closed board. The sims aren't very accurate here as quackle doesn't always block the right spots. He chooses to play AYU(13), which could set up RANA, TANA or even NANA. However this might not be necessary. 6M AYU(26) only puts him down by 29, within striking range. It is worth noting that there is already 1 bingo line along column C

6M AYU 26 7.75% 16.5
14M YU 19 7.69% 14.6
D7 AYU 13 5.88% 7.2

>Nigel: AEOPRTV C1 OVERAPT +81 457

Ganesh's play instead provides a place for Nigel's bingo to fit. If he had played 6M AYU, Nigel would have no bingo.

Move Score Win% Equity
C1 OVERAPT 81 97.33% 77.7

>Ganesh: EEELLRU 12A LEE +6 340

With 6 tiles remaining in the bag now and also trailing by 123, Ganesh has no choice but to open a triple-triple lane. With 2 triple-triple lanes open, he has a small chance of catching up.

Full game sims-

2A LEVEL 16 2.11% 1.1
12A LEE 6 1.64% -8.3
14L LEU 0.64% 6.8
N11 LURES 15 0.52 -1.5

>Nigel: AILORRT 6M AR +16 473

By leaving 1 tile in the bag, Nigel nearly guarantees the win, by going ahead by 135. This play also sets up another bingo line possibly allowing him to bingo out. However a comeback IDOLATER (140) could still be possible.

Move Score Win% Equity

6M AR 16 99.22% -15.4
M10 HEIL 18 94.63%

>Ganesh: AEILRTU A8 TAILLEUR +122 462

Ganesh plays the bingo but it is way too late.

>Nigel: DILORST 1B T.ROIDS +27 500

Best. Nigel seals it.

>Ganesh: L 11L ..L +5 467

Best.
>Ganesh: (L) +2 469

Equity loss- Nigel 2 Ganesh 30

Ave loss: Nigel 15 Ganesh 48


Nigel wins the game and is the champion.

Overall both players played quite well. Nigel had the better tiles overall and easier rack choices.