Tuesday, November 27, 2007

WSC finals game 2 analysis

Nigel now leads 1-0 and plays Ganesh again. This game is definitely more interesting than the previous one..


>Ganesh: AEEOSUY 8G YOU +12 12

Best here is h8 YOUSE(24) by about 6 pts, althought I doubt most players would play off their S for a mere 24 pts at the beginning. Even so, h8 UEY is about 2.5 pts better- AEOS is better than AEES.

>Nigel: ACIIJNP 9F CAIN +19 19

Nigel seems to have had a penchant for keeping the J and this is what he does yet again. F7 JAI is about 1 pt superior, as it dumps the J, but CAIN also sets up the J in the form of JUN. CAIN is a rather defensive move with an average opp score of just 29.

>Ganesh: AEEHRST J3 AETHERS +82 94

Best.

>Nigel: BIJKLLP 3I PALKI +28 47

Another interesting choice. Again, Nigel holds back playing off the J. Slightly surprisingly, it sims best, superior to 4I KELP or 7I JELL (37). PALKI scores while keeping the J for JUN next, which was exactly what happened.

>Ganesh: EEGIIIU -IIEGU +0 94

Ganesh changes all but IE. Keeping just E is 1.5 pts better though.

>Nigel: BIIJLOR 7I J.RBIL +42 89

Best by far.

>Ganesh: EEFIOTW L1 WO.E +30 124

Also best.

>Nigel: GGIMORS O3 OGRISM +49 138

Best, finally using the S for a good score.

>Ganesh: EFGISTV 1L .EFT +30 154

Best.

>Nigel: ?BCEGOO N6 B.OG +27 165

Best also.

>Ganesh: GINRSVZ 5H RI.Z +26 180

After a 4-ply sim, 7J TING (22) superior to RITZ by 3 pts. VIGS/BLOGS is also not too bad

>Nigel: ?ACEOWY 6F WYE +19 184

Best.

>Ganesh: DGMNQSV -GVNQDM +0 180

Best. Ganesh has no choice but to change.

>Nigel: ?ACNNOR M9 ACORN +20 204

ANCON in the exact same position, keeping ?R, is better by 6 pts.

>Ganesh: AAEENST 5E EA +9 189

Best for it creates 2 openings for a bingo later.

>Nigel: ?ADENOO 4A ODONAtE +73 277

Best score although it is slightly risky. 12H wANDEROO(68) would have been slightly safer.

>Ganesh: AEINSTT D3 A.TIENTS +62 251

Best. With such a nice rack, the only bingo is through the N.

>Nigel: AGHNOQU 11I QUOH.G +38 315

Also best.

>Ganesh: DEEILRU A4 .URIE +15 266

HUE(18) is about 8 pts better here. Better score and leave, while leaving the TWS open for a possible comeback.

>Nigel: AAFNNTX 3A TAN. +21 336

Yet another unexpected move from Nigel. Playing B8 FAX(28) to block the main bingo line would be better.

>Ganesh: ?DDELPU B8 DUPLiED +85 351

Ganesh plays the bingo to lead by 15.

>Nigel: AFIINVX A13 FAX +47 383

Nigel leads by 32 now and there 9 tiles unseen- ADEEMLSTV. From the pool Ganesh could have MALTEDS, DELATES or even VELETAS to bingo out.. As he is trailing now, blocking is not the right thing to do. FAX here is best as it doesn't allow a parallel play hooking AD. FAX wins 58% of games, while FIX wins just 40%.

>Ganesh: ADELMTV K10 M.VED +11 362

Best, blocking VISIER for 50 pts.

>Nigel: EIINSV E10 IVIES +18 401

Best also.

>Ganesh: ALT N13 ALT +8 370

LEAT is 3 pts better not that it matters now

>Ganesh: (N) +2 372

Equity loss Nigel 11 Ganesh 22

Quite a well-played game for both sides. Nigel played the endgame well to win. No bingoes were missed.

1 comment:

Jason said...

FAX was really brilliant. I think most of its advantage comes from threatening VINIE(R) with an E draw. Nigel is in surprisingly mediocre shape in most cases because Ganesh can make a big play that forms QUOHOGS. The vinier possibility makes Nigel a sure winner if he draws an E, S, or Ganesh doesn't have a good quohogs play.

--Jason