Thursday, December 14, 2006

Taking blocking a bit too far





My game against Aaron. Quackle recommends fishing with GOX. I played MILO. It does best on the assumption that opp will open up next turn allowing me a place for my bingo. The ave. opp score after GOX is barely 14 pts. However in real life opp will most likely change than open up the board, so it is not very accurate. Perhaps LOG is better as it opens 2 lines?

5 comments:

nibiew said...

I think it all depends on what Aaron played. If he played off one tile (or maybe two), he might very well be holding a bingo himself. In this case, it might be wiser to play GOX scoring more and closing the board up, perhaps even forcing him to open (for you, unintentionally).

If he played off more tiles though, it is possibly less likely that his rack yields a bingo. I'd prefer LOG in that case, the leave yields with around 15/26 letters (not forgetting that the Q and X have already been played off!).

I personally disagree with the MILO choice. It plays off two tiles and leaves one vowel, leaving a high chance of a 1-vowelled rack (just my gut feeling, it always happens). In this case, I'd think the E is pretty useless (and heart-wrenching) for a consonant dump. You'd really have to bank on any possible vowel opening by your opponent.

chris may said...

Difficult choice. Agree that GOX does less well in real life than in the sim. I don't think GLIM is bad, actually, considering that an F is already down. MILO is fine, and LOG looks OK too.

With moves of such different character I think it's a matter of taste. It's obvious what's good and bad about all four options, and there's only so much one can learn from sim data in those circumstances, considering how differently the simulator plays from a human (e.g. frequently opening after GOX). I think I'd play MILO or GLIM most times.

C

Edward Okulicz said...

I actually like GOX. Not a massive chance, but you might draw an I for MILREIS or something, and on an open or closed board I think you'll do better than an opponent on average, even with the sim's tendency towards opening up when no human would.

Might be my G-phobic nature speaking.

meow said...

How many WSC has Odette played in?

david eldar said...

Whats wrong with MILOR... Surely that kills MILO...