Friday, December 01, 2006

Game 8 annotation: David vs Austin

After 7 rounds,all Singaporean players are in the top 12. Good indeed..

View the finished game here

Do post in the comments, for if there isn't enough response I won't be doing any more of these till the finals.

Annotation with equity using Quackle sims (500-1000+ iterations)

Austin: SPEWJIS 8g JEW 26 Best.

David: SIMI 25 Exch II beats it by 3 pts, due to the obvious bonus potential of EIMRS

Austin:ZIG/EIPSS 26 Best. Not worth using the S for 2 more pts.

David:RORIE/EIR 6 A nice rack cleaning play, but it doesn't score. G6 ROJI(13)
beats it by 7 pts.

Austin:LISP/EIS 26 Nearly best. Slightly better by 2 pts is L11 SIP(24).

David: RAX/DEIRT 27 Clearly best. 5H OXIDATE(30) doesn't come close.

Austin:4f TARTIEST 66 Austin fails to find the optimal bingo, 13g ETATIST(75)

David: 3a RETIRED 75 Best. Also RETIRED in the same spot.

Austin: OGRE/LQU 18 An interesting choice to say the least, opting to keep the QU combination with a modest score. Also not on Quackle's list of plays.

After 1200 2 ply iterations:

Move Score Equ Bogowin%
M1 QUOTE 28 22.5 57.0
A1 OGRE 18 17.3 54.1
M1 QUITE 28 16.6 52.9
M1 QUITE 26 14.3 50.6
2E EGO 22 9.5 53.9

Dumping the Q for 28 is best.The Q gives up little ground. GIL isn't 6 pts better than GLO, but there are 6 Os unseen and only 2 unseen Is.

David: AUROrAE 75 Best. The only bingo playable.

Austin: COLE/IQU 32 OLEIC(37) in the same place is better by 4 pts. CAIQUE D1 is the only other close option.

David: UPBYE/FN. 27 Best, cleanly above the next play by a full 7 pts.

Austin: QUIT/AIKR 26 Best, beating L1 QUASI (24) by 1.5 pts.

David: FOEN/MVW 40 Best, despite the crappy leave.

Austin: BUNK/LAIR 20 The tight board offers few good options. The defensive 1A OINK(25) is 2 pts better. The open K isn't much of a threat though.

David: DOW/?EMV 28 David takes forever on this move, due to some technical errors. However DEV(29) simulates 5.5 pts better. After DEV we average 42.4 pts on the next turn, compared to 39.3 for DOW. ?MOW likely has better synergy and makes more bingos than ?MEV which is much less flexible.

Austin: WAIF/AELR 30 Best. Good score and leave

David:HM/AELV? 24 David misses 6d HAEM(44). It scores 21 pts more but only 4 more in equ, due to the potential of ?AELV.

Austin: HULA/RATE 21 Best. The good leave will pay off soon.

David: LEV/?AGT 21 Best. The V is a real hindrance to a potential bingo.

Austin: ETAERIO 77 Best. Austin plays the most high-probability bingo.

David: CADENT/G? 24 David is trailing by 21 pts after Austin's comeback bingo. ADHNNNOSVY is unseen. From the tile pool, there is a small possibility of HULAS/SYNANON, so the line must be blocked. CADENT is best, winning 56% of the time.

Austin: VENA 9 A weird move. 13H DAVY(28) is much better. But David would out with OHiNG(21) to win by 4.

David: HAGDON 11 winning 390-369.

Conclusion: A closely fought, but not a very exciting game with 2 bingos per side. Play was generally quite good as no bingos were missed.

Equity lost: Austin 43 David 10
Score per move: austin 30.8 David 32.5

Top 10 after day 1
1 Austin ShinEngland 7 638
2 Alastair RichardsAustralia 7 500
3 Thacha KoowiratThailand 6 645
4 David EldarAustralia 6 535
5 Marcus GohSingapore 6 336
6 Toh WeibinSingapore 6 300
7 Joshua SngSingapore 6 27
8 Chaiwat WuthinitikorThailand 6 18
9 Liew Kian BoonSingapore 5 520
10 Sherwin RodriguesIndia 5 320

Ave S'pore player position: 8.7
Ave M'sia player position: 28.5
Ave Aus player position: 22.6

good Surprises: Marcus, weibin, Chaiwat, sean chung, mohd zafar( won last 5)
bad surprises: Yi En, Suanne


Anonymous said...

ROJI? You're on crack.

Richard Jeremy said...

Hubert, great annotations and comparison with the simulations.

Thanks muchly!

sonic said...

on VENA, my guess is Austin was trying to block e9 HOGANs and 14c THONGs while keeping an outplay, and didn't spot HAGDON.

My choice was ROJI too. Score in hand against a worse leave. But I didn't spot RORIE anyway :-/

OGRE serendipitously block David's 9-timer AUROREAn; not sure if Austin was defensive-minded.

aphis said...

I'd have played SIMI as well, to equalise the scores. In this particular game David would have been struggling to play a bingo after Austin end-hooked JEW with one of the S's.

On DEV vs DOW, I suspect David was mindful that there were very few E's left so wanted to keep his. However, I would have gone for DEV simply to dispose of the V.

aphis said...

Forgot to add that CADENT was a very classy find by David.